Around 50,000 people will die in Europe due to heat in 2023, the highest level in a decade, according to an annual study on the issue published on Monday.
“We estimate that 47,690 deaths (…) occurred due to heat in 2023, the second highest death rate for 2015-2023 after 2022,” concludes the text published in the scientific journal Nature Medicine.
The annual study by teams from the Barcelona Institute of Global Health concluded that last year’s heat was the most deadly in 2022, killing more than 60,000 people in Europe.
But the accuracy of these numbers is not absolute: it is an estimate. For 2023, the researchers estimate that deaths will range from about 30,000 to 66,000.
In any case, the bottom line is that heat continued to kill thousands of people in 2023, mostly the elderly, and this summer was the second hottest on record in Europe.
Heat is a nightmare
Heat waves, which are getting worse in duration and frequency due to climate change, are likely to affect mortality rates in southern Europe (Italy, Greece…) but also in countries less exposed to heat, such as the Baltic states.
In France, the study found that the heat caused about 3,500 deaths, slightly lower than the number announced by the French health service a few months ago.
The study, based on data from 35 countries, estimates the number of deaths would have been even higher if authorities had not taken action.
As the authors remind, European countries realized the level of danger when they faced the heat wave of 2003. It is estimated that it killed about 70,000 people in Europe, but it is difficult for methodological reasons to make an exact comparison with estimates for the current period. .
The authors see the reduction in deaths as a positive effect of current extreme heat preparedness plans, but note that these policies alone are not enough and must be accompanied by more active measures to prevent global warming.